What Will Happen In 2009?
We asked one of the country's top futurists, Dr Patrick Dixon, to take a look at the year ahead, and answer some questions on what he thought would be in store for us! 1. UK economy?
"Well, these are exceptionally hard times. We are probably around half way through the current crisis - which has been going on already over 18 months. We can expect a tough 2009 and things should start picking up in 2010. Companies that make redundancies early and have saved cash will do well in the upturn: lean and fit and with finances available to buy companies or assets at knock-down prices. A lot of fuss has been made about the fall in the pound but this will be really good news for companies that sell goods or services outside the UK, and will also mean that people will spend more at home - whether on holidays or other things." 2. The UK housing market! do we sell up or stay put? Is renting a good option right now? Will housing become realistically affordable again?
"Each individual's situation is totally unique but here are some general thoughts. The house market is most likely to continue to drop sharply, but it should eventually level out. The more it falls, and the lower mortgage interest rates go, the more likely it will be that we see a rebound and a strong recovery, as many will decide to come back into the market or enter for the first time. Much has been written about mortgage markets changing forever, but that is very unlikely. The fact is that the mortgage market will eventually settle down, and will become more attractive and competitive again. Once we become convinced we are in the early stages of a Strong property price recovery, the loan to value ratios become more relaxed, and the return of 90% mortgages. Homeowner loans are the highest and most important financial transaction most will do in their lifetimes with the exception of pensions, so will become once again a very important part of retail financial services.
"Remember that the cost of selling and buying again is high with legal fees, stamp duty and the rest. The cost of renting has not fallen as quickly as house prices yet in many areas so renting is more expensive than you might think. Housing is already more affordable than for years - we have seen salary inflation of 3.5% or more in the last 2 -3 years, while property prices have also fallen up to 15%. Put the two together and you have about 25% drop in costs - and this is before mortgage rates started to fall, by 30% in some cases. When you look at the whole picture it's most likely that in 6 months we will see some wonderful bargains, with actual costs of ownership per month of less than half what it was just 18 months ago. But first time buyers will still need a larger deposit than in the past. Remember too: most people own to live in a home and not for a 2-10 year investment. It is vital to take a long term view in all property decisions." 3. The UK job market.. what kind of industries are most likely to make drastic job cuts? What are employment chances like now if you lose your job?
"Retail jobs will be very hard hit in January to June as the reality begins to hit home. McDonalds, Lidl and others trading towards the bottom of their markets will do very well. There are many sectors is surprisingly strong with 850,000 vacancies that were officially known about in December 2008. In previous downturns it has been very unusual for well motivated and talented individuals to be out of work for more than a year." 4. The credit/borrowing markets! will we stop being reliant on cheap credit? Will we now think about saving more?
"These things are just cycles. We are about to enter a cheap credit boom, fuelled by the lowest borrowing costs in living memory. The result in the medium term is most likely to be another overshoot, high inflation, high interest rates, eventually leading to another crash which could happen by 2015. As we have seen - swings can happen very fast from one end to the other."
To manage your money over the next few months, whatever their age, those Britons concerned about their capacity to manage their money might want to apply for a cheap loan. By taking out such a loan, borrowers may find that they are able to merge various financial commitments into a lower monthly repayment.
5. The world economy! what will be the affect of the world economy has on us all? What about pound and our travel/work abroad?
"This will continue to lurch from event to event. All eyes will be looking out for the price of the dollar. Despite the massive US crisis the dollar has increased or retained value against most currencies, as billions of dollars of US investments in other nations are brought back home to service debt and other urgent commitments. Eventually these massive return flows will slow down drastically. When this happens the question will be who will want to buy the dollar? Countries like China have bought over a trillion US dollars and are holding them for now. But what if they start selling? They can't sell too many or they will force a dollar crash and the rest of their assets will be worth much less. But they could sell enough to force a gradual dollar decline"
Steve Smith writes for All About Loans. Visist us today to apply for cheap loans online, personal finance, and UK tenant loans.
Published January 22nd, 2009
Filed in Finance
